Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis of a business involves analyzing its financial statements and health, its management and competitive advantages, and its competitors and markets. When applied to futures and forex, it focuses on the overall state of the economy, interest rates, production, earnings, and management. When analyzing a stock, futures contract, or currency using fundamental analysis there are two basic approaches one can use; bottom up analysis and top down analysis. The term is used to distinguish such analysis from other types of investment analysis, such as quantitative analysis and technical analysis.

Fundamental analysis is performed on historical and present data, but with the goal of making financial forecasts. There are several possible objectives:

to conduct a company stock valuation and predict its probable price evolution,

to make a projection on its business performance,

to evaluate its management and make internal business decisions,

to calculate its credit risk.

Two analytical models

When the objective of the analysis is to determine what stock to buy and at what price, there are two basic methodologies

Fundamental analysis maintains that markets may misprice a security in the short run but that the "correct" price will eventually be reached. Profits can be made by trading the mispriced security and then waiting for the market to recognize its "mistake" and reprice the security.

Technical analysis maintains that all information is reflected already in the stock price. Trends 'are your friend' and sentiment changes predate and predict trend changes. Investors' emotional responses to price movements lead to recognizable price chart patterns. Technical analysis does not care what the 'value' of a stock is. Their price predictions are only extrapolations from historical price patterns.

Investors can use any or all of these different but somewhat complementary methods for stock picking. For example many fundamental investors use technicals for deciding entry and exit points. Many technical investors use fundamentals to limit their universe of possible stock to 'good' companies.

The choice of stock analysis is determined by the investor's belief in the different paradigms for "how the stock market works". See the discussions at efficient-market hypothesis, random walk hypothesis, capital asset pricing model, Fed model Theory of Equity Valuation, Market-based valuation, and Behavioral finance.

Fundamental analysis includes:

Economic analysis

Industry analysis

Company analysis

On the basis of these three analyses the intrinsic value of the shares are determined. This is considered as the true value of the share. If the intrinsic value is higher than the market price it is recommended to buy the share . If it is equal to market price hold the share and if it is less than the market price sell the shares.

Use by different portfolio styles

Investors may use fundamental analysis within different portfolio management styles.

Buy and hold investors believe that latching onto good businesses allows the investor's asset to grow with the business. Fundamental analysis lets them find 'good' companies, so they lower their risk and probability of wipe-out.

Managers may use fundamental analysis to correctly value 'good' and 'bad' companies. Eventually 'bad' companies' stock goes up and down, creating opportunities for profits.

Managers may also consider the economic cycle in determining whether conditions are 'right' to buy fundamentally suitable companies.

Contrarian investors distinguish "in the short run, the market is a voting machine, not a weighing machine". Fundamental analysis allows you to make your own decision on value, and ignore the market.

Value investors restrict their attention to under-valued companies, believing that 'it's hard to fall out of a ditch'. The value comes from fundamental analysis.

Managers may use fundamental analysis to determine future growth rates for buying high priced growth stocks.

Managers may also include fundamental factors along with technical factors into computer models (quantitative analysis).

Top-down and bottom-up

Investors can use either a top-down or bottom-up approach.

The top-down investor starts his analysis with global economics, including both international and national economic indicators, such as GDP growth rates, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, productivity, and energy prices. He narrows his search down to regional/industry analysis of total sales, price levels, the effects of competing products, foreign competition, and entry or exit from the industry. Only then he narrows his search to the best business in that area.

The bottom-up investor starts with specific businesses, regardless of their industry/region.

Procedures

The analysis of a business' health starts with financial statement analysis that includes ratios. It looks at dividends paid, operating cash flow, new equity issues and capital financing. The earnings estimates and growth rate projections published widely by Thomson Reuters and others can be considered either 'fundamental' (they are facts) or 'technical' (they are investor sentiment) based on your perception of their validity.

The determined growth rates (of income and cash) and risk levels (to determine the discount rate) are used in various valuation models. The foremost is the discounted cash flow model, which calculates the present value of the future

dividends received by the investor, along with the eventual sale price. (Gordon model)

earnings of the company, or

cash flows of the company.

The amount of debt is also a major consideration in determining a company's health. It can be quickly assessed using the debt to equity ratio and the current ratio (current assets/current liabilities).

The simple model commonly used is the Price/Earnings ratio. Implicit in this model of a perpetual annuity (Time value of money) is that the 'flip' of the P/E is the discount rate appropriate to the risk of the business. The multiple accepted is adjusted for expected growth (that is not built into the model).

Growth estimates are incorporated into the PEG ratio, but the math does not hold up to analysis.[citation needed] Its validity depends on the length of time you think the growth will continue. IGAR models can be used to impute expected changes in growth from current P/E and historical growth rates for the stocks relative to a comparison index.

Computer modelling of stock prices has now replaced much of the subjective interpretation of fundamental data (along with technical data) in the industry. Since about year 2000, with the power of computers to crunch vast quantities of data, a new career has been invented. At some funds (called Quant Funds) the manager's decisions have been replaced by proprietary mathematical models.

Criticisms

Economists such as Burton Malkiel suggest that neither fundamental analysis nor technical analysis is useful in outperforming the markets.

(source;wikipedia)

Integrated business planning

Integrated business planning (IBP) refers to the technologies, applications and processes of connecting the planning function across the enterprise to improve organizational alignment and financial performance. IBP accurately represents a holistic model of the company in order to link strategic planning and operational planning with financial planning.

By deploying a single model across the enterprise and leveraging the organization’s information assets, corporate executives, business unit heads and planning managers use IBP to evaluate plans and activities based on the true economic impact of each consideration.

History of IBP

The roots of IBP date back to 1996 where Dr. Robert Whitehair, working at the University of Massachusetts, developed technology for capturing and exploiting expert knowledge. Dr. Whitehair worked in close collaboration with several colleagues, including Professor Igor Budyachevsky of the Russian Academy of Science, to develop a technology now called COR (Constraint Oriented Reasoning). COR technology was used to capture expert knowledge; then embed it in applications that allow users to leverage it through a natural language interface.

Using grant funding from corporate giants such as Chase, DuPont, General Electric, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Shell and the Williams Company, Dr. Whitehair captured expert knowledge from numerous disciplines and introduced an application for business analysis that empowered decision makers.

Components of IBP

As illustrated right, planning is integrated across the enterprise, which enables decision makers to identify the activities that deliver the greatest financial impact across the company.

Recent developments and successes in the areas of business intelligence and performance management are accelerating the adoption of integrated business planning. While IBP has been a vision for many years; the technology required for modeling, optimization and scaling was non-existent. Dr. Robert C. Whitehair of River Logic, considered to be the father of IBP[citation needed], used constraint-oriented reasoning (COR) and knowledge-based rules engines to generate mathematical representations of planning constraints and variables; thereby making IBP a reality.

Dr. Whitehair, working in collaboration with scientists in the U.S. and the Russian Academy of Science, solved the problem of scaling real-life situations in mathematical equivalents. Today, IBP software easily runs thousands of analyses of a mathematical representation of ~1,000,000 equations, each in excess of 1,000,000 variables, in a typical solve.

In broad terms, the use of mathematical representations and extensive knowledge bases enable users to build the massive, multivariable models required for Integrated Business Planning.

Analyses

Companies use IBP to translate insight into financial impact by providing analyses such as: Identification of top financial (profit) drivers

Answers to “what-if” questions

Simulation

Optimization to any variable or ratio, including balance sheet, profitability, NPV, cash flow, etc

Intelligent sensitivity analysis

Modeling infeasibilities

Understanding of unique performance driver relationships

Opportunity costs and marginal economic value

Benefits

IBP transforms planning into a decisive competitive advantage by:

Providing an integrated planning platform across marketing, operations and finance

Generating a holistic understanding of performance drivers

Quantifying the financial impact and interdependencies across planning alternatives

Optimizing strategic planning and resource allocation

Balancing sales and operations planning for profitability

Quantifying financial risk

Increasing business flexibility

IBP Applications

IBP has been used to successfully model and integrate the planning efforts in a number of applications, including:

Product profitability

Customer profitability

Capital expenditures

Manufacturing operations

Supply chain

Business processes (human and information-based)

Business policy

Market demand curves

Competitive strategy

(source:wikipedia)

History of paper

The history of paper began in Ancient Egypt approx. 3,700 BC – 3,200 BC with the use of papyrus as a medium for written records, a considerable advance over the technique employed by the Sumerians of writing on clay tablets. The word "paper" is etymologically derived from papyros, Ancient Greek for the Cyperus papyrus. Most western books in the middle ages were made of parchment, derived from animal hides.

Paper was invented by the Chinese by 105 AD in the Han Dynasty and spread slowly to the west via Samarkand and Baghdad. Papermaking and manufacturing in Europe started in Italy and Germany by 1400.

Papyrus and parchment

The word paper derives from the Greek term for the ancient Egyptian writing material called papyrus, which was formed from beaten strips of papyrus plants, while biblos, a Greek term signifying the bark of the plant, is in the derivation of various words relating to books, such as Bible and bibliography. The Greek writer Theophrastus used the word papyros to refer to plant as a foodstuff whereas bublos signified any derived processed product, such as cordage or as a writing surface. It was smoothed on one side by rubbing it against a flat stone surface. Papyrus was produced as early as 3700 BC in Egypt, and later exported to both ancient Greece and Rome.

The establishment of the Library of Alexandria in the 3rd century BC put a drain on the supply of papyrus. As a result, according to the Roman historian Pliny the Elder (Natural History records, xiii.21), parchment was invented under the patronage of Eumenes of Pergamum to build his rival library at Pergamum. Outside Egypt, parchment or vellum, made of processed sheepskin or calfskin, replaced papyrus, as the papyrus plant requires subtropical conditions to grow. These materials are technically not true paper, which is made from pulp, rags, and fibers of plants and cellulose. As paper was introduced, it replaced parchment.

Papermaking

Further information: Four Great Inventions of ancient China,

Hemp wrapping paper, China, circa 100 BC

The world's earliest known printed book (using woodblock printing), the Diamond Sutra of 868 CE, shows the widespread availability and practicality of paper in China.

Papermaking has traditionally been traced to China about 105 AD, when Cai Lun, an official attached to the Imperial court during the Han Dynasty (202 BC-220 AD), created a sheet of paper using mulberry and other bast fibres along with fishnets, old rags, and hemp waste.

Early papermaking in China

Further information: Science and technology of the Han Dynasty

Papermaking is considered to be one of the Four Great Inventions of Ancient China, since the first papermaking process was developed in China during the early 2nd century. During the Shang (1600–1050 BC) and Zhou (1050 BC – 256 AD) dynasties of ancient China, documents were ordinarily written on bone or bamboo (on tablets or on bamboo strips sewn and rolled together into scrolls), making them very heavy and awkward to transport. The light material of silk was sometimes used, but was normally too expensive to consider. While the Han Dynasty Chinese court official Cai Lun is widely regarded to have invented the modern method of papermaking (inspired from wasps and bees) from rags and other plant fibers in 105 CE, the discovery of specimens bearing written Chinese characters in 2006 at north-east China's Gansu province suggest that paper was in use by the ancient Chinese military more than 100 years before Cai, in 8 BC. It therefore would appear that "Cai Lun's contribution was to improve this skill systematically and scientifically, fixing a recipe for papermaking". Archeologically however, ground paper without writing has been excavated in China dating to the reign of Emperor Wu of Han from the 2nd century BC, used for purposes of wrapping or padding protection for delicate bronze mirrors. It was also used for safety, such as the padding of poisonous 'medicine' as mentioned in the official history of the period. Although paper used for writing became widespread by the 3rd century, paper continued to be used for wrapping (and other) purposes.

Toilet paper was used in China by at least the 6th century CE. In 589 AD, the Chinese scholar-official Yan Zhitui (531-591 AD) wrote: "Paper on which there are quotations or commentaries from Five Classics or the names of sages, I dare not use for toilet purposes". An Arab traveler to China once wrote of the curious Chinese tradition of toilet paper in AD 851, writing: "[The Chinese] are not careful about cleanliness, and they do not wash themselves with water when they have done their necessities; but they only wipe themselves with paper". Toilet paper continued to be a valued necessity in China, since it was during the Hongwu Emperor's reign in 1393 that the Bureau of Imperial Supplies (Bao Chao Si) manufactured 720,000 sheets of toilet paper for the entire court (produced of the cheap rice–straw paper). For the emperor's family alone, 15,000 special sheets of paper were made, in light yellow tint and even perfumed. Even at the beginning of the 14th century, during the middle of the Yuan Dynasty, the amount of toilet paper manufactured for modern-day Zhejiang province alone amounted to ten million packages holding 1,000 to 10,000 sheets of toilet paper each.

The Bencao on traditional Chinese medicine; printed with woodblock in 1249, Song Dynasty

During the Tang Dynasty (618–907 AD) paper was folded and sewn into square bags to preserve the flavor of tea. During the same period, it was written that tea was served from baskets with multi-colored paper cups and paper napkins of different size and shape. During the Chinese Song Dynasty (960–1279 AD) not only did the government produce the world's first known paper-printed money, or banknote (see Jiaozi and Huizi), but paper money bestowed as gifts to deserving government officials were wrapped in special paper envelopes.

Diffusion of paper

Paper spread slowly outside of China; other East Asian cultures, even after seeing paper, could not make it themselves. Instruction in the manufacturing process was required, and the Chinese were reluctant to share their secrets. The paper was thin and translucent, not like modern western paper, and thus only written on one side. The technology was first transferred to Goguryeo in 604 and then imported to Japan by Buddhist priests, around 610, where fibres (called bast) from the mulberry tree were used.

Islamic world

After the defeat of the Chinese in the Battle of Talas in 751 (present day Kyrgyzstan), the invention spread to the Middle East. The rudimentary and laborious process of paper making was refined and machinery was designed for bulk manufacturing of paper by Muslims. Production began in Baghdad, where the Arab Muslims invented a method to make a thicker sheet of paper, which helped transform papermaking from an art into a major industry. The use of pulp mills, which are water-powered mills used for preparing the pulp material used in papermaking, dates back to Samarkand in the 8th century, though this should not be confused with paper mills (see Paper mills section below). The Muslims also introduced the use of trip hammers (powered by humans and animals) in the production of paper, replacing the traditional Chinese mortar and pestle method. In turn, the trip hammer method was later employed by the Chinese.

The Arabs also made advances in book production soon after they learnt papermaking from the Chinese in the 8th century. Particular skills were developed for script writing (Arabic calligraphy), miniatures and bookbinding. The Arabs made books lighter—sewn with silk and bound with leather-covered paste boards; they had a flap that wrapped the book up when not in use. As paper was less reactive to humidity, the heavy boards were not needed. The production of books became a real industry and cities like Marrakech in Morocco had a street named "Kutubiyyin" or book sellers which contained more than 100 bookshops by the 12th century. In the words of Don Baker: "The world of Islam has produced some of the most beautiful books ever created. [...] Splendid illumination was added with gold and vibrant colours, and the whole book contained and protected by beautiful bookbindings." The earliest recorded use of paper for packaging dates back to 1035, when a Persian traveler visiting markets in Cairo noted that vegetables, spices and hardware were wrapped in paper for the customers after they were sold.

Since the First Crusade in 1096, paper manufacturing in Damascus had been interrupted by wars, splitting production into two centres. Egypt continued with the thicker paper, while Iran became the center of the thinner papers. Papermaking was diffused across the Islamic world, from where it was diffused further west into Europe.

Americas

In America, archaeological evidence indicates that a similar bark-paper writing material was invented by the Mayans no later than the 5th century CE. Called amatl, it was in widespread use among Mesoamerican cultures until the Spanish conquest. The parchment is created by boiling and pounding the inner bark of trees, until the material becomes suitable for art and writing.

These materials made from pounded reeds and bark are technically not true paper, which is made from pulp, rags, and fibers of plants and cellulose.

Europe

A copy of the Gutenberg Bible, in the U.S. Library of Congress

The oldest known paper document in the West is the Mozarab Missal of Silos from the 11th century, probably using paper made in the Islamic part of Spain. They used hemp and linen rags as a source of fibre.

Paper is recorded as being manufactured in both Italy and Germany by 1400, just about the time when the woodcut printmaking technique was transferred from fabric to paper in the old master print and popular prints. The first commercially successful paper mill in England was opened by John Spilman in 1588 near Dartford in Kent and was initially reliant on German papermaking expertise.

Paper mills

Main article: Paper mill

The Nuremberg paper mill, the building complex at the lower right corner, in 1493. Due to their noise and smell, papermills were required by medieval law to be erected outside of the city perimeter.

A paper mill is a water-powered mill that pounds the pulp by the use of trip-hammers. The mechanization of the pounding process was an important improvement in paper manufacture over the manual pounding with hand pestles.

Evidence for water-powered paper mills is elusive in both Chinese and Muslim papermaking, though there is evidence that they used human-powered and animal-powered paper mills. The general absence of the use of water-power in Muslim papermaking is suggested by the habit of Muslim authors to call a production center a "paper manufactory", but not a "mill".

Donald Hill has identified a possible reference to a water-powered paper mill in Samarkand, in the 11th-century work of the Persian scholar Abu Rayhan Biruni, but concludes that the passage is "too brief to enable us to say with certainty" that it refers to a water-powered paper mill. While this is seen by Halevi nonetheless as evidence of Samarkand first harnessing waterpower in the production of paper, he concedes that it is not known if waterpower was applied to papermaking elsewhere across the Islamic world at the time; Burns remains altogether sceptical given the isolated occurrence of the reference and the prevalence of manual labour in Islamic papermaking elsewhere.

The earliest certain evidence to a water-powered paper mill dates to 1282 in the Spanish Kingdom of Aragon. A decree by the Christian king Peter III addresses the establishment of a royal "molendinum", a proper hydraulic mill, in the paper manufacturing centre of Xàtiva. The crown innovation appears to be resented by the local Muslim papermakering community; the document guarantees the Muslim subjects the right to continue their way of traditional papermaking by beating the pulp manually and grants them the right to be exempted from work in the new mill.

The first paper mill north of the Alps was established in Nuremberg by Ulman Stromer in 1390; it is later depicted in the lavishly illustrated Nuremberg Chronicle. From the mid-14th century onwards, European paper milling underwent a rapid improvement of many work processes.

19th century advances in papermaking

Paper remained expensive, at least in book-sized quantities, through the centuries, until the advent of steam-driven paper making machines in the 19th century, which could make paper with fibres from wood pulp. Although older machines predated it, the Fourdrinier paper making machine became the basis for most modern papermaking. Nicholas Louis Robert of Essonnes, France, was granted a patent for a continuous paper making machine in 1799. At the time he was working for Leger Didot with whom he quarrelled over the ownership of the invention. Didot sent his brother-in-law, John Gamble, to meet Sealy and Henry Fourdrinier, stationers of London, who agreed to finance the project. Gamble was granted British patent 2487 on 20 October 1801. With the help particularly of Bryan Donkin, a skilled and ingenious mechanic, an improved version of the Robert original was installed at Frogmore, Hertfordshire, in 1803, followed by another in 1804. A third machine was installed at the Fourdriniers' own mill at Two Waters. The Fourdriniers also bought a mill at St Neots intending to install two machines there and the process and machines continued to develop.

However, experiments with wood showed no real results in the late 18th-century and at the start of the 19th-century. By 1800, Matthias Koops (in London, England) further investigated the idea of using wood to make paper. And in 1801 he wrote and published a book titled, "Historical account of the substances which have been used to describe events, and to convey ideas, from the earliest date, to the invention of paper." His book was printed on paper made from wood shavings (and adhered together). No pages were fabricated using the pulping method (from either rags or wood). He received financial support from the royal family to make his printing machines and acquire the materials and infrastructure need to start his printing business. But his enterprise was short lived. Only a few years following his first and only printed book (the one he wrote and printed), he went bankrupt. The book was very well done (strong and had a fine appearance), but it was very costly.

Then in the 1830s and 1840s, two men on two different continents took up the challenge, but from a totally new perspective. Both Charles Fenerty and Friedrich Gottlob Keller began experiments with wood but using the same technique used in paper making; instead of pulping rags, they thought about pulping wood. And at about exactly the same time, by mid-1844, they announced that their findings. They invented a machine which extracted the fibres from wood (exactly as with rags) and made paper from it. Charles Fenerty also bleached the pulp so that the paper was white. This started a new era for paper making. By the end of the 19th-century almost all printers in the western world were using wood in lieu of rags to make paper.

Together with the invention of the practical fountain pen and the mass produced pencil of the same period, and in conjunction with the advent of the steam driven rotary printing press, wood based paper caused a major transformation of the 19th century economy and society in industrialized countries. With the introduction of cheaper paper, schoolbooks, fiction, non-fiction, and newspapers became gradually available by 1900. Cheap wood based paper also meant that keeping personal diaries or writing letters became possible and so, by 1850, the clerk, or writer, ceased to be a high-status job.

The original wood-based paper was acidic due to the use of alum and more prone to disintegrate over time, through processes known as slow fires. Documents written on more expensive rag paper were more stable. Mass-market paperback books still use these cheaper mechanical papers (see below), but book publishers can now use acid-free paper for hardback and trade paperback books.

(source:wikipedia)

President of Egypt

President of the Arab Republic of Egypt
Presidential Standard
Incumbent Muhammad Hosni Mubarak since 14 October 1981
Residence	Abdeen Palace, Cairo,  Egypt
Term length	Six years, renewable
Inaugural holder	Muhammad Naguib
Formation	18 June 1953
Website	www.presidency.gov.eg

Egypt

This article is part of the series: Politics of Egypt

The President of the Arab Republic of Egypt is the elected Head of State of Egypt. Under the Constitution of Egypt, the President is also the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces and head of the Executive branch of the Egyptian government.

The first President of Egypt was Muhammad Naguib, one of the leaders of the Egyptian Revolution of 1952, who took office on 18 June 1953, the day on which Egypt was declared a republic.

The fourth and current President of Egypt is Hosni Mubarak. His first term began on 14 October 1981, and from September 2005 has been serving his fifth term in office. There is no constitutional limit upon the number of terms that any one individual can serve as President.

Presidential powers

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Under the system created by the 1980 constitutional amendments, the President is the pre-eminent executive figure, who names the Prime Minister of Egypt. During martial law, the President also anoints deans of faculties and majors, and can also enlist or oust people in the private sector. Egypt has been under martial law since 1981. When the President's political party or supporters control the Parliament, the President is effectively the dominant player in executive action, choosing whomever he wishes for governmental positions, and having the government follow his political agenda. However, should the President's political opponents control Parliament, the President's dominance would be severely limited, as he would have to select a Prime Minister and Cabinet reflecting the majority in Parliament. By convention, the President controls foreign affairs and defense-related issues of the state, while the Prime Minister manages the day-to-day affairs including the economy.

In the late 1970s, Egypt had several cohabitation governments which proved to be unstable, due to the struggle arising between the President and the Prime Minister. However, since 1981, the National Democratic Party has maintained a majority in the People’s Assembly and held the Presidency.

Requirements to hold office

Article 75 of the Egyptian Constitution establishes the requirements one must meet in order to become President. The President of the Republic should be an Egyptian Descendant from history born to Egyptian parents and enjoy civil and political rights. His age must not be less than 40 Gregorian years.

Election

Election procedures are taken before the end of the incumbent president’s term by 60 days.

Candidacy

Additional requirements were provisioned in Article 76 of the Egyptian constitution concerning candidates for the President's office.

in light of the amendment, in accordance with the by-laws of each political party.

The candidate must have occupied one of the top leadership positions in the party for a period of one year.

The political party must have been established for a period of five years, and managed to win 3% of the seats in the People’s Assembly (the lower chamber of Parliament), and 5% in the Shora Council (the upper chamber).

An independent candidate:

An independent candidate must receive the endorsement of 250 elected members from Egypt’s representative bodies (approximately 6.5% from a total of 3847 representatives), from which a minimum of 65 endorsements to be obtained from the People’s Assembly (which constitutes 14%), 25 endorsements from the Shoura Council (also 14%) and 10 Local Council endorsements from 14 Governorates (4.5%) in order to ensure geographic representation.

Election procedure

Old system

Presidential Standard, 1972-1984

Under the 1980 amendments of the 1971 Egyptian Constitution, the President of Republic is elected indirectly in a two-stage system unique to Egypt. The People’s Assembly, the lower house of Parliament, nominates one of a number of candidates for presidency. The presidential candidate requires at least a two-thirds majority in the People’s Assembly in order to proceed to the second stage of the elections.

2005/2007 constitutional amendment

In 2005 and 2007, constitutional amendments were made. Principles in the amended constitution include:

The election of the President of the Republic by direct secret ballot from among all citizens who enjoy the right to vote.

Ensuring the necessary guarantees for multiple candidates to be put forward to the people so as to be elected by direct vote.

Provisions that would ensure the credibility of the nomination process.

Providing the opportunity for political parties to put forward one of their leaders to contest the first presidential elections to be held in light of this amendment.

The establishment of an Election Commission that would enjoy complete independence to supervise the election process.

Convening the election in a single day.

Provision of the required modalities to ensure judicial supervision over the voting process.

The following provisions regarding the election process are stipulated in Article 76 as amended:

A successful candidate must be elected by the majority of the votes. If no candidate attains such a majority, elections will be repeated after at least 7 days between the two candidates having the highest votes. In case of a tie between the candidate who attained the second highest votes and a third candidate, the third candidate shall participate in the second round. The candidate who receives the highest votes in the second round shall be declared President.

The amendment also provides that a law will be passed to regulate the relevant election procedures. This law is expected to regulate the various aspects of the election process itself, including campaign funding, equal access to the media, and guarantees of fair competition.

As required by the amendment, this law will be submitted to the Supreme Constitutional Court to opine on its constitutionality. This establishes an important precedent in Egypt’s legal tradition, by which the Supreme Constitutional Court shall have the right of prior review of national legislation to decide on its compatibility with the Constitution. This differs from the practice thus far by which the review process undertaken by the Court on national legislation was done subsequent to the passage of legislation.

e • d Summary of the 7 September 2005 Egyptian presidential election results

Candidates, Nominating parties Votes %

Hosni Mubarak, National Democratic Party (Al-Hizb Al-Watani Al-Dimuqrati) 6,316,714 88.6

Ayman Nour, Tomorrow Party (Hizb al-Ghad) 540,405 7.3

Numan Gomaa, New Wafd Party (Hizb al-Wafd al-Jadid) 201,891 2.8

Total (Turnout 22.9 %) 7,059,010

Presidential campaign

This section requires expansion.

Presidential Election Commission

The amendment to Article 76 of the constitution provides for the establishment of a “Presidential Election Commission” that would enjoy complete independence, and would be charged with the supervision of the Presidential election process.

The Commission will be composed of 10 members, presided by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court and four other ex officio members of the judiciary who are the most senior serving Deputy President of each of the Supreme Constitutional, the Court of Cassation, and the High Administrative Court, and the President of the Cairo Court of Appeal.

The rest of the Commission will be made up from five independent and neutral public figures: 3 to be selected by the Peoples Assembly and 2 to be selected by the Shoura Council.

Decisions of this Committee shall be passed by a majority of 7 votes. This Commission will have a term of five years and will be exclusively competent to supervise the presidential election process, including accepting nominations, announcing the names of accepted candidates, supervision of election procedures, vote counting and announcement of the results.

It will also have final judicial competence to rule on any contestation or challenge submitted in relation to the presidential elections, and its decision will be final and subject to no appeal. The Committee will issue its own regulations and shall be competent to establish general sub-committees from among members of the Judiciary, to monitor the various phases of the election process, under its supervision. The election process will be completed in one day.

Inauguration and oath of office

In accordance with Article 79 of the constitution, the President must take the following oath or affirmation before exercising his functions: "I swear by Allah The Almighty to sincerely maintain the Republican system, to respect the Constitution and law, to fully care about the interests of the people, and to maintain the independence and territorial integrity of the Homeland."

Term(s) of office

Under the Constitution, the President serves six Gregorian years starting from the date of the announcement of result of the plebiscite. The President of the Republic may be re-elected for other successive terms. The constitution did not specify the number of terms a president shall remain in office, however recent reformers have continuously asked for such a limit to be incorporated in the constitution.

In case a term ends without a new president is chosen, the incumbent president continues to serve until a president is chosen. If the president-elect is announced before the end of the incumbent president’s term, the incumbent president continues in office till the end of his term.

As of 2006, President Mohamed Hosni Mubarak has been the President of the Republic since 14 October 1981 and is currently serving his fifth term. President Mubarak was re-elected in 1987, 1993, 1999, and 2005, making him the longest serving Egyptian President in the history of the Republic.

Succession

In the case of temporary incapacitation of the president, the constitution provides the president to relinquish his powers to a vice-president. If there is no Vice President in-office, the prime minister takes office. However the person who takes office is limited in power as the new president can not dissolve the parliament, propose constitutional amendments or remove the cabinet from office.

In case of the vacancy of the Presidential office or the permanent incapacitation of the President, the Speaker of the People’s Assembly shall temporarily assume the Presidency. In case the People’s Assembly is dissolved at such a time the chief justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court shall take over the Presidency on condition that neither shall nominate himself for the Presidency. Both are also limited in power as in they can not dissolve the parliament, remove the cabinet, propose constitutional amendments.

The People’s Assembly shall then proclaim the vacancy of the office of President, and a new president shall be chosen within a maximum period of sixty days form the date of the vacancy of the office.

Although, the constitution does not directly stipulate any role for the Vice-President in the process of Presidential succession, It had become a tradition for the People's Assembly to nominate the Vice-President for the vacant office of the President. Both Sadat and Mubarak served as Vice-Presidents at the time the Presidential office became vacant. Mubarak has not appointed anyone for the position of the Vice-President, although many intellectuals and activists have called for an active Vice-Presidency.

Resignation

The president may resign by delivering his resignation to the People's Assembly. The only president to resign was President Nasser, who submitted his resignation after the overwhelming Egyptian defeat in 1967 war with Israel, before returning back to office after mass demonstrations by the Egyptian public.

Official residences

The official residence and office of the president is Abdeen Palace, in Old Cairo, Cairo. Other presidential palaces include:

Egyptian Presidential Palace, in Heliopolis, Cairo

Ras Al-Teen Palace, in Alexandria

Montaza Palace, in Alexandria

• Tags: History of Egypt,
  • Cairo,
  • Hosni Mubarak , محمد حسني مبارك‎,
  • • Politics of Egypt,
  • Egypt

(source:wikipedia)